Wednesday, November 15, 2006

thesis/hypothesis

Ok. I was just thinking about the word hypothesis, and I realized the obvious: under-thesis. Actually, I think this is a really amazing distinction... at least in the way I'm thinking about it right now:

a) A thesis is something you believe. An argument. It is something you accept as truth. You go out and dig up supporting evidence. Evidence that contradicts it, you have a number of choices: ignore, repudiate, or ridicule.

b) A hypothesis is something you want to believe. A proposition. It is something you have a hunch is truth. You go out and dig up every bit of evidence you can find that pertains to your hypothesis. Evidence that contradicts it, you have to sit with, breathe it in, digest it, until you figure out what's going on.



In science, we tend to glorify hypotheses. I never really liked this idea, because it seems to get all mucked up with theses. People get attached to ideas, and become unwilling to let them go. I've seen embarrassingly few examples of a lab producing one paper, and then another paper that tests and contradicts their original conclusion; they almost always seem to find some evidence that supports it.

I guess the key lies in numbers and mortality. If Newton had lived to see Einstein, he probably would've clung to classical mechanics to the bitter end. Einstein probably would have held to 'God does not play dice' to the bitter end. We just have to hope that, over time, enough people without pride at stake will take a look at the evidence, and that those who are deified in their time will eventually fade and be relegated to the ranks of the fallible.

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